Indicating that
single-family home builders remain cautious and concerned
about the fragile state of today’s economy and
housing market, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells
Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) declined one point
to 15 in June.
“The outlook for home sales has improved somewhat
in recent months, due largely to implementation of the
first-time home buyer tax credit and gains in housing
affordability,” said NAHB Chairman Joe Robson,
a home builder from Tulsa, Okla. “However, looking
forward, home builders are facing a few headwinds, including
expiration of the tax credit at the end of November;
a recent upturn in interest rates; and especially the
continuing lack of credit for housing production loans.”
“As expected, the housing market continues to
bump along trying to find a bottom,” said NAHB
Chief Economist David Crowe. “Meanwhile, builders
are taking their cue from consumers, who remain uncertain
about the economy and their own situation. Builders
are also finding it difficult to complete a sale because
customers cannot sell their existing homes.”
Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting
for more than 20 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges
builder perceptions of current single-family home sales
and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,”
“fair” or “poor.” The survey
also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers
as “high to very high,” “average”
or “low to very low.” Scores for each component
are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index
where any number over 50 indicates that more builders
view conditions as good than poor.
Two out of three of the HMI’s component indexes
were unchanged in June, including the index gauging
current home sales, which held at 14, and the index
gauging traffic of prospective buyers, which held at
13. Meanwhile, the index gauging expectations for the
next six months declined a single point, to 26.
Regionally, the decline was entirely focused in the
South, which is the nation’s largest housing market.
There, the HMI declined 3 points to 15, while the rest
of the regions posted gains. The Northeast had a one-point
gain to 20, the Midwest, a one-point gain to 15, and
the West, a two-point gain to 14.
EDITOR’S NOTE: The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market
Index is strictly the product of NAHB Economics, and
is not seen or influenced by any outside party prior
to being released to the public. HMI tables can be accessed
online at: www.nahb.org/hmi.
More information on housing statistics is also available
at: www.housingeconomics.com.
Source: National Association
of Homebuilders, June 15, 2009
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