PORTLAND, Ore.
– Demand for lumber in the U.S. in 2009 will slide
to the lowest level in modern history, then move toward
a slow recovery starting next year, according to a new
forecast issued by Western Wood Products Association.
The poor economy and a housing market that has plummeted
to historic lows are the chief reasons for the remarkable
decline in lumber demand. WWPA predicts U.S. lumber
demand will slide this year to just 28.9 billion board
feet, down almost 30 percent from 2008 totals.
Since reaching an all-time high of 64.3 billion board
feet in 2005, U.S. demand for lumber has dropped by
more than 55 percent – the steepest decline in
the history of the industry.
Home construction traditionally accounts for more than
45 percent of the lumber used each year. The Association
estimates just 432,000 houses will be started in 2009,
down more than half from 2008 totals and one-fifth of
what was built in 2005.
The volume of lumber used in new home construction
is expected total 5.3 billion board feet this year,
compared to the 27.6 billion board feet consumed in
home building in 2005.
In 2010, housing is forecast to improve modestly to
553,000 starts, bringing lumber consumption to nearly
30 billion board feet. WWPA does not expect housing
starts to exceed
1 million units until 2012.
The unprecedented decline in demand has taken its toll
on lumber producers. Western lumber production is forecast
to decrease nearly 26 percent to 9.7 billion board feet.
That volume is the lowest since the 1930s and represents
a little more than half the volume Western mills produced
five years earlier.
Mills in the U.S. South will see production declines
as well, falling to 10.9 billion board feet in 2009.
In all, U.S. lumber production will total 21.8 billion
board feet this year, down 25 percent from 2008. As
markets start turning up in 2010, U.S. production will
rise to 22.4 billion board feet.
Poor markets have been even tougher on Canada and other
foreign lumber suppliers. Lumber imports from Canada
are predicted to total 7.6 billion board feet in 2009,
a decrease of 34.7 percent from the previous year. Since
2005, Canadian lumber imports have declined by nearly
two-thirds, or some 14 billion board feet.
Other imports, including lumber from Europe and Latin
America, should decline by double-digit percentages
for the fourth straight year and lose more market share
to domestic producers.
Western Wood Products Association represents lumber
manufacturers in the 12 Western states. Based in Portland,
WWPA compiles lumber industry statistics and provides
business information services to mills. The Association
also delivers quality standards, technical and product
support services to the industry.
Source: Western Wood Products
Association, March 24, 2009
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