Forget free
kitchen upgrades, tropical vacations or complimentary
closing costs. The latest marketing efforts from home
builders center around financing, with rock-bottom mortgage
rates, delayed payments and mortgage insurance for job
losses.
It's the newest batch of offers from an industry limping
through the worst downturn in decades and gearing up
for what's set to be an abysmal spring selling season.
Builders know cash is essential to pay the bills and
survive, so they're trying anything to make a sale,
even if it further stresses margins as cash flow concerns
mount.
Lennar Corp., Toll Brothers and Hovnanian Enterprises
are offering interest rates well below a national average
hovering above 5%, with industry giant Lennar lowering
the bar to 3.875%. As soon as this weekend, Hovnanian
expects to offer insurance that covers payments for
some laid-off homeowners, while Pulte Homes will foot
the bill until 2010 in several markets.
"I give them credit; they're not just rolling
over and playing dead," Robert Curran, Fitch Ratings'
lead home-building analyst. "They're looking to
distinguish themselves among their peers in a very,
very tough market. It probably pulls [in] some incremental
sales, but I think in the environment we're in right
now, it's probably not going to make a big difference."
Most of the nation's largest builders stuck in a string
of quarterly losses realize that. As shares have plummeted
by nearly half in the last year, the sector's confidence
has hit record lows, dragged down by job losses -- tens
of thousands on Monday alone -- and plummeting prices.
Eleven of 20 metro areas showed record rates of annual
decline, according the S&P/Case-Shiller home price
data through November.
That's in addition to increased competition from foreclosures.
The National Association of Realtors reported this week
that December's existing sales showed a surprisingly
strong gain, aided by banks dumping foreclosures for
bargain prices and "short selling" by troubled
sellers getting less than they owe.
While the trade group's chief economist noted that
the market remains "far from normal balanced conditions,"
the fact that sales happened as the financial meltdown
continued gives builders hope. Industry watchers constantly
mention pent-up demand from buyers awaiting pricing
stability or lower mortgage rates. Builders are increasingly
impatient: Since the housing bubble popped, the sector
has tried everything to move inventory.
As the market began to sour, companies resisted price
cuts, instead offering gourmet kitchens, landscaping
and getaways. Price wars followed, with a circus atmosphere
and discounts hitting six figures.
Builders also employ "buydowns," which make
an upfront cash payment to an investor purchasing the
mortgage. Since November, Centex Corp., the nation's
third-largest builder, has offered a 3.25% mortgage
rate that rises to 4.5% after two years. It reports
Feb. 3, but executives recently said fiscal third-quarter
orders crumbled 80% from a year earlier.
Toll Brothers recently shocked the industry by extending
the financing for the loan's life. The Pennsylvania-based
luxury builder offered a 3.99% fixed interest rate for
30 years on loans of $417,000 or below for buyers with
at least a 720 credit score and a 20% downpayment. For
qualified buyers, Pulte also offers a conventional fixed
3.99% for three decades in six markets including Denver,
Chicago and Cleveland.
Not to be outdone, Lennar recently rolled out its 3.875%
fixed rate in a number of its 40-plus markets. No further
information was available.
K. Hovnanian American Mortgage, which has offered a
4.5% rate for several weeks, will likely match Toll's
number in some markets by this weekend. It could require
as little as 5% down for strong credit scores. M.D.C.
Holdings Inc.'s HomeAmerican Mortgage Corp., meanwhile,
has a 30-year fixed rate at 4%.
But even the lowest rates seen in years aren't enough
to overcome unemployment, which increased nationwide
last month and has spared few sectors. Those without
jobs or afraid of losing them are unlikely to buy.
That's why No. 6 builder Hovnanian is putting the finishing
touches on a policy for "involuntary unemployment"
that would pay the monthly mortgage for up to six months.
The plan includes a 60-day vesting period and a 30-day
wait from the date of losing a job where the borrower
worked for 30 hours or more per week for at least 12
consecutive weeks.
"We hope this will give a little peace of mind"
to jittery buyers, said Dan Klinger, Hovnanian's mortgage
arm's president. "The investors that buy these
loans after closing should also like the idea ... The
mortgage payment is still made."
It doesn't apply to the self-employed, independent
contractors or seasonal workers. Firings and voluntary
resignations don't count. New Jersey-based Hovnanian's
builders fund the policies, which cost just a few hundred
dollars per year per qualified loan, Klinger said.
Another strategy involves giving even those who remain
employed a temporary break. For strong buyers closing
on or after May 1, Pulte, the nation's fourth-largest
builder, will cover 2009's payments, up to six months.
The deal, which can't be combined with the 3.99% offer,
is available in Minnesota, Denver, Chicago, Indianapolis,
Michigan and Cleveland, according to a spokesman. Michigan
and Minnesota buyers must put down 10%, with 20% for
others.
Such programs come with a cost that has eroded once-healthy
margins. Last year's estimated average gross margin
was 12.8%, compared with 26.2% in 2005 -- the highest
in recent years, according to JPMorgan. Toll leads the
list at 24.3% in 2008, down from 32.2% in 2005. Hovnanian's
6.67% is 2008's lowest, a plunge from 25.3% in 2005.
Lennar slipped to 17%, from 26.3%, while Pulte hit 11.9%,
from 23.3%, JPMorgan noted.
But for most builders, margins aren't the most relevant
metric. "The goal is to generate enough cash, stay
liquid, survive and play another day," said David
Goldberg, UBS' building analyst.
Source: The Wall Street Journal,
January 28, 2009
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