By Ed Hernandez

Across Canada, rising mortgage carrying costs in 2008 will have the biggest impact on the single-family housing segment where activity is forecast to dip below the 100,000 unit mark for the first time since 2001. Single-family starts will decrease 17.7 per cent to 97,925 units in 2008, then drop an additional 4.8 per cent to 93,225 units next year.

By province, double-digit declines in single-family housing starts are forecast this year in Alberta (-43.1 percent), British Columbia (-18.5 percent), Quebec (-13.9 percent), and Ontario (-10.1 percent). Only the provinces of Saskatchewan, Newfoundland, and Manitoba will register higher single family starts in 2008.

For 2009, four provinces will post higher single family housing starts, while six provinces will see singles move lower. Ontario will record a double digit decline for a second consecutive year with singles falling an additional 14.9 per cent next year. A significant slowdown in single family starts will also occur in Nova Scotia (-12.3 per cent) and Saskatchewan (-12.0 per cent). Meanwhile, modest increases in single detached activity are forecast in Alberta, Manitoba, Quebec, and Newfoundland in 2009. ehernandez@steelframing.org.