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MARKETPLACE
Residential Market May Be Stabilizing
February’s 1.0% fall in residential construction
spending was the smallest in almost two years because
of an outsized 11% month to month rise in remodeling
spending. This is suspect. Estimates of remodeling spending
are from a different and less reliable source than estimates
for the rest of construction. Large revisions are frequent.
There is a risk that residential construction spending
is not as strong as now reported.
However, other, usually more reliable, February housing
data suggests that the housing market may be stabilizing.
Housing starts are 6.5% above the December low point.
Total sales of homes appears to have stabilized. The
inventory of new and existing homes for sale is now
falling quickly because homebuilders have slowed work
to cut the completion of new home 9% in February.
The forecast expects an 11.6% fall in residential construction
spending this year and a 10.6% gain next year. Housing
starts, 1.065 million in February, will dip slightly
more than rise to over 1.1 million by year end and to
nearly 1.4 million by the end of 2009. This recoups
only about one-third of the decline in 2006-08.
|
Monthly
Figures (1)
(latest actual values)
|
Actual |
Forecast |
Northeast
(% change is period
versus same period, previous year)
|
Jan-08 |
Feb-08 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
141 |
102 |
189 |
171 |
143 |
130 |
144 |
-25.0% |
-23.9% |
7.4% |
-9.7% |
-16.3% |
-9.4% |
11.2% |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Midwest |
159 |
159 |
357 |
284 |
206 |
164 |
198 |
-16.3% |
-2.5% |
0.5% |
-20.5% |
-27.5% |
-20.2% |
20.2% |
South |
534 |
555 |
1,001 |
912 |
676 |
542 |
658 |
|
-23.6% |
-30.5% |
10.4% |
-8.9% |
-25.9% |
-19.9% |
21.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
West |
237 |
249 |
551 |
445 |
319 |
213 |
274 |
|
-27.3% |
-36.5% |
7.3% |
-19.2% |
-28.4% |
-33.2% |
28.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
1,071 |
1,065 |
2,073 |
1,812 |
1,344 |
1049 |
1274 |
|
-23.7% |
-28.4% |
6.3% |
-12.6% |
-25.8% |
-22.0% |
21.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total
Single-family |
758 |
707 |
1719 |
1,474 |
1,038 |
721 |
928 |
|
-32.5% |
-40.5% |
7.1% |
-14.2% |
-29.6% |
-30.5% |
28.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total
Multi-family |
313 |
358 |
354 |
338 |
306 |
327 |
346 |
|
11.8% |
19.7% |
2.6% |
-4.7% |
-9.5% |
7.1% |
5.8% |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
New
Home Sales (2) |
601 |
590 |
1,279 |
1,049 |
774 |
594 |
712.5 |
|
-32.5% |
-29.8% |
6.5% |
-18.0% |
-26.3% |
-23.2% |
20.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Manufactured
Home Shipments |
92 |
94 |
148 |
118 |
95 |
93 |
103 |
|
-2.1% |
1.1% |
13.8% |
-20.0% |
-19.3% |
-2.3% |
10.5% |
|
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(1) Monthly figures are seasonally adjusted at annual
rates (SAAR figures).
(2) Based on a survey of homebuilders; excludes homes
built under contract and multi-family rental
units).
Actuals: U.S. Department of Commerce, National Association
of Realtors, Freddie Mac.
Forecasts and table: Reed Construction Data.
Mfg. home shipment data for Nov. and Dec.
Source: www.reedconstructiondata.com,
April 10, 2008
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