MARKETPLACE
NAR Predicts Housing Upturn in
Second Half of 2008
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said its
index of pending home sales -- which measures signed
purchase agreements in the United States -- fell 1.9
percent month-over-month, though recovery is possible
in the second half of 2008.
Pending home sales in February fell 4.9 percent month-over-month
to 84.6, following an upwardly revised figure of 86.2
in January. The Pending Home Sales Index is a forward-looking
indicator based on contracts signed. The February figures
still are 21.4 percent lower than the February 2007
index of 107.6.
“Existing-home sales could start to show a sustained
increase within a few months, unless there are some
additional economic problems or excessive inflationary
pressure,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist
for the NAR. “We’re looking for essentially
stable sales in the near term, before higher mortgage
loan limits translate into more sales in high-cost markets.
The wider access to affordable credit should increase
sales activity notably this summer as pent-up demand
begins to be met.”
Regionally, pending sales rose 3.2 percent in the Northeast
and 2.1 percent in the West. The index fell 3.7 percent
in the Midwest and 5.5 percent in the South.
Existing-home sales are likely to rise from an annual
pace of 4.9 million in the first quarter to 5.9 million
in the fourth quarter, according to predictions from
the NAR. With relatively weak activity in the first
part of the year, existing-home sales for all of 2008
are forecast at 5.39 million, increasing 6.6 percent
to 5.74 million in 2009. The price of existing homes
will probably ease by 1.4 percent to a median of $215,800
for all of 2008 before rising 3.7 percent to $223,800
next year, the group said.
“Exceptionally weak home sales related to jumbo
loans problems will depress home prices in the first
half of the year, but steady liquidity improvements
in the conforming jumbo-loan market will help prices
recover in the second half of the year,” Yun said.
Source:www.homechannelnews.com,
April 10, 2008
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